The opening stage of IEM Cologne 2025 brings together Brazilian squad paiN and North American team Liquid, who are currently going through a deep crisis. With paiN’s surprise playoff run at the BLAST.tv Austin Major and Liquid’s failure to qualify for ESL Pro League, this best-of-three will test which of the two can find stability at a crucial moment. Who will seize the opportunity?
Current Form
paiN have shown mixed results recently. Out of 45 maps played over the past three months, they’ve won 18 — below-average consistency. However, their unexpected playoff run at BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025 was a bright spot. At FISSURE Playground 1, they placed 9–12th. In their last five matches, they’ve secured wins over FURIA and Rare Atom, but suffered losses to 3DMAX, Lynn Vision, and The MongolZ.
Liquid are enduring one of their worst periods in recent years. With only 11 wins from 27 maps in three months, their confidence is clearly shaken. The team hasn’t participated in any major events recently, and failed to make it past the ESL Pro League S22 European qualifiers, finishing 9–16th. Most concerning: they’ve lost their last five matches — to Sashi, MOUZ, The MongolZ, Lynn Vision, and Aurora — without a single win, signaling a full-blown crisis.
Map Pool Breakdown
In a bo3, the likely veto and pick order looks like this:
- paiN bans Ancient (their usual first ban; also a strong map for Liquid)
- Liquid bans Train (consistently removed from their pool)
Predicted picks:
- paiN picks Dust2 — their most played map with a 55% win rate
- Liquid picks Nuke — one of their few practiced maps; paiN has a lower WR on it
Second bans:
- paiN bans Overpass — recently reintroduced, unpredictable
- Liquid bans Mirage — weak WR and a common pick for paiN
- Decider: Inferno — a relatively neutral choice for both teams
Projected map pool: Dust2, Nuke, Inferno
Head-to-Head
paiN and Liquid have not faced each other in official matches over the past six months. This will be their first encounter in 2025, with new rosters on both sides — adding unpredictability to the outcome.
Match Prediction
Given Liquid’s dreadful form — five straight losses and a failed qualifier — paiN come in as clear favorites. Despite their own inconsistencies, the Brazilians have momentum from their major playoff run. Dust2, likely to be their pick, is a strong map for them and a solid opening.
Even if Liquid manage to win Nuke, paiN should have enough firepower to close out the series either on Dust2 or a balanced decider like Inferno.
Prediction: paiN wins 2–1.
