Will NiKo finally be able to secure his long-overdue Major trophy? Is NaVi going to bounce back after a disappointing showing at the BLAST World Finals, or can Team Spirit return to their old form from the start of the year and finish the year on a much-needed high in Shanghai? I took a closer look at what it will take for these three teams to lift the Shanghai Major trophy.
G2
The team with the most firepower—G2 has established itself this season as a major contender for every tournament. They have consistently made playoffs and deep runs. This is also most likely going to be their last dance, with NiKo all but confirmed to be leaving after Shanghai.
One of the main reasons why they are so good is their excellent pistol statistics. During their run in the BLAST World Finals, G2 had an astonishing pistol win rate of 81.8%, combined with a 100% second-round conversion. Getting off to a hot start in MR12 is incredibly valuable, not only to fire up your players but also to bolster your economy.
Next up, their players are known to be big-stage players. Once they get over the hurdle of the studio environment, they are able to shift into another gear. m0NESY is on his way to establishing himself as the #1 player this year. His year is filled with highlights, and he keeps showing up on the main stage time and time again. If he continues to do so, the sky is the limit for him, and the battle between m0NESY, donk, and Zyw0o for the #1 spot will only get more exciting in Shanghai.
All in all, I am pretty convinced that this G2 is going to have a deep run in Shanghai. NiKo is going to be eager to finally claim his long-overdue Major trophy, with huNter- returning to his old form and malbsMd being the best transfer in CS2 this year. Their biggest hurdle is going to be the RMR, where G2 as an organization has struggled time and time again. However, this feels like a different and, most importantly, more consistent team than ever before.
Natus Vincere
There is no way to talk about title contenders without mentioning NaVi. B1ad3’s work this year has been nothing short of spectacular. Having won four titles this year, including a Major trophy in Copenhagen, they are looking to defend said trophy with their amazing teamwork.
Going out in last place in the most recent BLAST World Finals might be a blessing in disguise for them. It gave them some much-needed time to reset and work on their playbook, something that has definitely fallen short with all the deep runs they had. AleksiB even mentioned signs of tension as a result of being on the road together for so long.
Looking at their map pool, they took a big hit on Mirage. Touted as the best team in the world for a long time, they have lost their last three matches on it without even reaching double digits in any of those matches. It seems like teams have started to figure them out. I am sure that during the break they spent valuable time working to get back to their former strength on said map. If we take a deeper look at their map pool, it is overall looking very strong, with Anubis, Dust2, and Ancient having over a 75% win rate in the past three months. Suggesting that they have taken the time to fix both Mirage and Nuke, NaVi looks like a hot contender to win back-to-back Majors.
Interestingly enough, both jL and b1t are able to shift into another gear when it comes to arena matches. Let’s take another look at the best-performing arena players provided by @Ner0cs on X.
jL is in fourth place with a 1.16 rating, while b1t is posting a 1.06 rating. The most important piece of the puzzle for me, however, is w0nderful. He has been letting the team down on multiple occasions in big games and definitely needs to step up and take the next step for him to be remembered as one of the best AWPers in CS2. He needs to be more consistent in challenging the likes of m0NESY and Zyw0o in those important, deciding games.
All things considered, NaVi is definitely one of the main contenders, and I cannot wait to see what B1ad3 and AleksiB have been cooking for this Major during their preparation time ahead of it.
Team Spirit
Having taken the early season by storm, Team Spirit has started to cool down drastically in the later part of the season.
Especially donk has started the first half of 2024 with record-breaking numbers, posting a crazy 1.70 rating in IEM Katowice 2024.
However, there is a clear pattern to be seen if we take a closer look at Team Spirit’s games. If he does not post those insane numbers, Team Spirit has problems balancing it out and helping him win games. Sh1ro is playing very consistently and is the perfect counterpart for an overly aggressive donk, especially on the CT-side. They complement each other perfectly. However, both zont1x and magixx need to step up, especially on the T side of things. Zont1x is a phenomenal CT-side anchor who can hold his own and multi-frag even in difficult situations. On the other hand, he has a tendency to go missing on the T side with very passive lurks and missed timings.
Let’s dive deeper into this segment. I looked at the past six months, and below you can see the difference in his CT-side statistics compared to his T-side statistics on every map.
Above are his statistics when they are on the CT side. He has phenomenal ratings, with ADRs in the high 80s, peaking at 92 ADR on Mirage. His teammates can definitely trust him on CT, which allows sh1ro and donk to roam a lot together without having to worry about zont1x anchoring.
Looking at the T side, it shows a huge dip in form. For example, on Mirage, where he is lurking towards A, he seems to have very little impact, and his ADR, as well as his overall rating, take a huge hit. The team needs to find a way to include him better.
Zont1x definitely has the skill set to be a great player, and the team desperately needs him to be that third player to take some weight off donk and sh1ro’s shoulders. The numbers that donk posted at the beginning of the year are not sustainable, and it is clearly visible in the team’s performance whenever he has an off-game. The best example is IEM Cologne 2024; donk posted his first negative rating at an event, and they went out dead last without even winning a map.
In order for Team Spirit to really challenge both NaVi and G2, they need this trio to perform at a consistent level, and I hope that the coaching staff, combined with chopper, has created a more sustainable game plan on the T side to activate zont1x and not rely solely on donk to have multi-kills round after round.
